Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.654042 0.754670 0.862411 0.985983 1.123416 1.271195 1.441729
2025-02-16 0.463549 0.590647 0.737352 0.917756 1.132083 1.377003 1.676381
2025-02-23 0.322988 0.456373 0.622619 0.841594 1.118661 1.453635 1.884900
2025-03-02 0.219702 0.346993 0.519002 0.761966 1.089059 1.506429 2.070441
2025-03-09 0.160534 0.283358 0.462944 0.733868 1.119860 1.636579 2.364864
2025-03-16 0.115506 0.229371 0.409997 0.701013 1.139056 1.752681 2.651966
2025-03-23 0.090707 0.201188 0.390029 0.712540 1.221551 1.962407 3.083807
2025-03-30 0.064191 0.162120 0.344423 0.676515 1.228116 2.064042 3.372471
2025-04-06 0.047189 0.135630 0.314441 0.660431 1.262483 2.208326 3.732990
2025-04-13 0.033914 0.112028 0.284170 0.638185 1.283073 2.332071 4.070996
2025-04-20 0.026368 0.098921 0.271510 0.645540 1.353619 2.538958 4.549195
2025-04-27 0.019870 0.085595 0.255056 0.642546 1.404933 2.717831 4.994395
2025-05-04 0.014656 0.073637 0.239470 0.640487 1.461156 2.915192 5.492701
2025-05-11 0.010814 0.063801 0.226336 0.641422 1.523376 3.128309 6.032181
2025-05-18 0.007291 0.052323 0.205261 0.620714 1.540886 3.264816 6.453559
2025-05-25 0.004490 0.040898 0.179979 0.584694 1.522466 3.334850 6.766164
2025-06-01 0.003109 0.034942 0.169089 0.581712 1.572420 3.533842 7.314234
2025-06-08 0.002015 0.028969 0.155623 0.569113 1.599735 3.691853 7.798779
2025-06-15 0.001536 0.026685 0.154609 0.590238 1.704642 4.006027 8.580541
2025-06-22 0.000900 0.021399 0.139376 0.567618 1.706254 4.117691 8.998883
2025-06-29 0.000555 0.017951 0.129936 0.559860 1.741557 4.298276 9.553236
2025-07-06 0.000312 0.014639 0.119077 0.544968 1.757314 4.439439 10.039885
2025-07-13 0.000206 0.013080 0.116079 0.554946 1.835911 4.714843 10.793226